This is the first, short post in my newly created blog on Dominican politics, and in particular the Dominican 2012 presidential elections, which I will be following "on site" in Santo Domingo from now and until May 20.
I will try to sum up and analyse important events during the campaign and maybe also draw some lines between the current campaign and recent political history in the country.
Currently the election campaign is heating up and there are basically too many things going on for me to capture every detail. Some of the issues I do want to focus on in the days and weeks to come, however, are the candidates: Danilo Medina and Hipólito Mejía for the PLD (Partido de la Liberación Dominicana) and PRD (Partido de la Revolución Dominicana), respectively, who both ran as presidential candidates in 2000 when Mejía ; the party system and main political parties (PLD, PRD and the rests of the split PRSC); the scandals and more than anything else the corruption allegations; connected to this I hope to get time to write on the so-called Margaritagate which included allegations that the current First Lady and candidate for the Vice-Presidency for PLD, Margarita Cedeño, had a bank-account in Denmark with 43 million €; Felix Bautista, the strong-man, Leonel's protegé and friend, and PLD-senator who has been involved in corruption schemes earlier and now may be one of the reasons for the recent change of Prime Minister in Haiti; current President Leonel Fernández merits some words, already president for twelve years and younger than Balaguer was before he started his "doce años" in 1966; another very interesting topic is the war of the surveys in the campaign and how these are used by the candidates; the political party alliances and the minor parties; the father and son party FNP (Fuerza Nacional Progresista) that has supported the PLD since 1996 in a xenophobic alliance; and the message (or lack thereof) of the candidates in this campaign.
These are only some topics that I hope to start blogging about already tomorrow.
As a short intro I can say that the presidential elections for 2012 will be a battle between two candidates, PLD's Danilo Medina who picked the first lady Margarita Cedeño as his vice-presidential candidate, and PRD's Hipólito Mejía who picked Luis Abinader from a traditional PRD family as his vice-presidential candidate. It will be a very tight race and there are two uncertainties going on at the moment: Who will win? And, will there be a need for a second electoral round? In the DR there is a ballotage if the leading candidate does not obtain at least 50% of the votes in the first round. This rule was implemented for the 1996 presidential election, and this year was the only year that a second round was needed (Leonel Fernández beat José Francisco Peña Gómez, PRD, in the second round). In 2000 Hipólito Mejía was very close to reaching 50% of the votes in the first round, and after presidential candidate Balaguer, PRSC, had said there wouldn't be any need for a second round, Mejía was declared the winner. In the 2004 and 2008 Fernández obtained more than 50% of the votes in the first round in two-horse races against Hipólito Mejía and Miguel Vargas (PRD). Whether there will be a second round or not this time, depends on how many votes the minor parties can catch and the closeness of the race among the two main contenders. The PRSC this year has basically decided to retire its own party, now controlled by Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso, and supports Medina in this race.
Up until recently my money would have been on Hipólito Mejía and the PRD. First because I think many are tired of the PLD rule and the great difference between Leonel's rhetoric and socio-economic realities. Second, sufficent new voters have been enrolled and sufficient older voters have forgotten that between 2000-2004 Hipólito Mejía most likely was the worst president (at least in economic terms) since the start of democracy in 1978. Three, Medina is not a very popular candidate outside the PLD-organisation. The last couple of months I have started slowly to change my mind since Margarita gives Medina access to state resources during the campaign, and she lets him get a hold on Leonel followers. This might be enough to get him elected. I think a Medina victory might be good for democracy in the country because it would weaken somewhat Leonel's hold on the PLD and open that party up, and the PRD might have to get some new and younger blood into the leadership of the party. A Mejía victory might be bad for the country if he rules like he did last time, and it would strengthen both Leonel and Mejía's position in their respective parties. On the other hand, a change in government after 8 years of PLD might be even more important for the country's democracy, but if this happens it is a bit sad that presidency will be handed over to a "devil we know" (to cite political scientist Javier Corrales).
Hopefully we will know on May 20 who wins, and then we will know if Hartlyn's hypothesis from his 1998 book that the tighter the election the higher risk for an electoral crisis, is correct. Although I hope that an electoral crisis will be avoided in this presumably tight election, I do think that the tighter the election result the more advantegous for the incumbent party. Luckily the Junta Central Electoral is a much more professional electoral organiser now than in 1994, although it seems somewhat more politicised (and PLD) dominated than before.
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