Some of the posts I put out will be more of a diary type and shortly summarise some of the last events of the elections and politics more in general. This is one of these posts.
Yesterday was an important date for the elections since the Junta Central Electoral (www.jce.do) officially accepted the candidacies for president and vice president, and started verifying the electoral roll (census of registered voters). PLD runs with Danilo Medina and Margarita Cedeño, PRD with Hipólito Mejía and Luis Abinader, and PRSC will not have a proper candidate but supports officially Danilo Medina (you can actually vote for Medina on a PRSC ticket on May 20). There are four more groups of candidates from minor parties (if parties is the proper name for any of the political parties in the country right now): Eduardo Estrella for DxC (Dominicanos por el Cambio), Estrella from Cibao was presidential candidate for the PRSC in 2004, in 2008 he ran as presidential candidate for PRSD (Partido Revolucionario Social Demócrata, Hatuey DeCamps splinter party from the PRD...interestingly after a deal PRSD will this year support Mejía and the PRD and DeCamps has become one of Mejía's campaign managers...evil tongues have it that DeCamps does this only to bury Mejía as a revenge against Mejía running for re-election in 2004). This is therefore Estrella's third bid for the presidency, for his third party, in eight years. Max Puig is the presidential candidate for Alianza por la democracia, APD, a party he founded when he officially left the PLD. Puig was as recently as 2004 named environmental minister by Fernández, and until recently his party has supported and allied with the PLD. The real "independent candidate" this year, and one who might be popular with the middle classes who are tired of the same old from the established parties, is Guillermo Moreno for the party Alianza País. Moreno is a lawyer, a popular education among Dominican politicians and he has earlier worked as an academic, lawyer and as prosecutor general in Santo Domingo. Earlier he has represented MIUCA (Movimiento Independencia Unidad y Cambio), which used to play the role as the intelectual alternative to the major parties but this year supports Julian Serrulle (see below). If Moreno can capture enough votes of the people who are "jarto", then there might be a second round in the presidential elections. The last candidate is Julian Serrulle for the Frente Amplio party. Serrulle comes from a well-known political family as well and just as Max Puig he considered himself close to Juan Bosch, and the PLD. In sum we have the two main candidates, two independent candidates that come out of the PLD, one from the PRSC and one which has very little history with the main parties.
JCE also started revising the electoral roll, which means checking that all with a right to vote is registered as a voter and registered at a polling station that enables voting. Historically, the electoral roll (padrón electoral) has been the source of electoral fraud in the country, most famously in 1994 with the displacement of up to 300.000 voters, but this year I do not think one should expect any greater problems. The OAS has been present to oversee the revision, but the PRD (just to be sure) is on top of the process and is complaining that their voters (in particular) may be displaced. There has been a few reasons for concern regarding the Center for computing in the JCE, partly because both in the Center and the JCE key members are considered to be too closely associated with the PLD. Since this promises to be a close election, such concerns should be taken seriously.
On another note, today Diario Libre ran a story that nicely demonstrates the workings of a clientelistic state. The DR political culture and regime must be caracterised as clientelistic, and Hartlyn in his 1998 book called the regime neopatrimonial. This is a description that still fits today. Diario Libre could report that 80% of the vice-ministers (sub-secretary of state) are inorganic, which means that they are not nominated by law. It also means that these do not do any work for the state, they only receive a salary. Most of these do not even have an office. In total Diario Libre found that only 36 vice-ministers are nominated according to the law and potentially do any real work for the government. 154 vice-ministers are not nominated according to the law and probably do not do anything for the government, except receive a salary, potentially a car and maybe some funds for private security, etc. There are 20 ministries in the country, so the total sum of 190 vice-ministers is quite high. The PRD economist, or economist with a known affiliation with the PRD, Andrés Dauhajre Jr. came to an even higher figure last year. He argues that there are 334 vice-ministers in the country. The actual minister of Public Administration, Ramón Ventura, reports that his ministry has produced regulations of the nomination of vice-ministers, and he has given his colleagues until June to remove any superfluous vice-ministers. My guess is that this regulation will not be respected and that things will continue like they are even after the elections. The reason is that vice-ministries are currency for alliances (together with among other things the presidency of the Liga Municipal Dominicana), and these are as important as ever given that ideological differences are almost non-existent between the main parties (this is confirmed by the Elite surveys done by the Universidad de Salamanca). Supporting the two top candidates are for the PLD: PRSC, BIS (former Peña Gómez, PRD, faction), UDC (Unión Demócrata Cristiana), Partido Quiqueyano Demócrata Cristiano, FNP (Fuerza Nacional Progresista), Partido de los Trabajadores Dominicanos (PTD), Partido Popular Cristiano, Partido Demócrata Popular, Partido Cívico Renovador, Partido Liberal de la República Dominicana, Partido de Acción Liberal (PAL), Partido Socialista Verde and Partido de la Unidad Nacional. Supporting the PRD we find the former splinter party PRSD, Partido Demócrata Institucional, Partido Movimiento Democrático Alternativo, Partido Humanista Dominicano and Partio Alianza Social Dominicana. All in all 18 parties, which are not really parties, but entities of electoral accountability that helps the main party keep scores of how many votes the minor parties contributed with in their victory. From that score, once in government, a president may start paying out. And, they pay out with vice-ministries.
A last funny note was a letter of opinion written in Hoy on March 23 by Ramón Arturo Guerrero, which compared Leonel Fernández with President-elect Putin of Russia. I expected a nice story about how Medina would be for Leonel what Medvedev was to Putin, but no. It was a piece comparing their backgrounds growing up in authoritarian systems, education, etc. and which compared their popularity. Both leaders, Guerrero argued, implemented democracy in their respective countries and ruled with high quality. Guerrero concludes that Fernández as Putin, could come back in 2016 (and for some reason be re-elected in 2020, apparently Guerrero assumes that someone will reform the constitution again and open for immediate presidential re-election, again). Although I am critical to President Fernández's work as president, I must say that he strikes as somewhat more democratic than Putin. Guerrero, who obviously is a Fernández supporter, did not make a very flattering comparison for his president.
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